It doesn’t appear that scandal plagued Missouri Representative Todd Akin’s campaign is “shutting itself down,” despite “legitimate” concerns over his viability in his bid to oust Senate incumbent Claire McCaskill.
Immune to political pressure, Akin is displaying some of that same stubbornness and rigidity he exhibited during the Bush Administration’s passage of its controversial 2003 Medicare prescription drug coverage bill. Letting it slip out of the House in a one vote squeaker, Akin was an unmitigated “No.” Even with Tom Delay’s foot on his throat, just like now, Akin refused to capitulate.
His funding choked off, his polling data in free fall, and party leadership barking in his ear, it still isn’t likely that Akin will withdraw. Traders on Intrade say there’s a only a 3% chance he’ll get out of the race by the September 25th deadline. Barring that, there’s a whopping 65.9% likelihoodthat his opponent, McCaskill, will win the fall contest, according to Intrade.
Republican Rep. Todd Akin
Taken a week before Akin’s toxic comments to a local news station about a woman’s reproductive system voluntarily “shutting down” to prevent pregnancy during the act of a “legitimate rape,” an August Survey USA Poll had him ahead in the Show Me State by 11 points. Now, a Real Clear Politics average, including a newly minted St. Louis Dispatch poll showing Akin down by nine percentage points, has McCaskill up by +5.3.
The “rape” comments have also proved to be a boon to McCaskill’s fundraising efforts. Having already spent $9 million, McCaskill still has over a million more dollars cash on hand than the anemic $2 million Akin’s campaign has raised in its entirety, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.
When stories emerged that local t.v. stations pulled his ads for lack of payment, Akin took to Twitter to refute them, admonishing no fewer than seven different journalists and influential Tweeters like WaPo’s Aaron Blake, and NY’s “Ross on Politics” Tweeting that, “Unable to pay is misleading and wrong. We’re shifting schedules and paying for the ad time we want.”
Trying desperately to recalibrate his message using social media, Akin puts the argument to his meager base of supporters that, Republican “party bosses” don’t get to choose who runs in Missouri elections, Missourian voters do. With only 6,000 followers on Twitter, 70,000 fewer followers than his opponent, that message is getting zero traction.
Democrat Senator Claire McCaskill
There are other distractions too. A standard search on-line, and Google’s auto suggest rears the term, “breast milk” as one of its highest trending search terms related to Akin; ahead of “rape.” Turns out, claims that Akin said breast milk “cures homosexuality,” ended up being a hoax. Regardless, after “murder” and “child porn,” seeing terms like “rape” and “breast milk” every time someone searches out your candidate, would make any campaign manager’s blood freeze.
Promoting a recent private poll conducted by the “Citizens United Political Victory Fund” on the front page of his campaign Website, Akin puts himself out in front by 10 points, and cites Governor Romney’s lead as being +20 over the president. With unemployment in Missouri hovering a full percentage point below the national average, and support for McCaskill, which was tepid at best prior to Akin’s controversy, it’s still not a question of whether or not McCaskill can win, but rather, by how many points does Akin lose to her come November.
Main photo source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/donkeyhotey/7774357156/
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